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He thinks high unemployment and excess production capacity is holding back the U.S. economy. Add Europe to the mix and he is fairly cautious (despite a great October in the markets). He feels any good news is already factored into the markets with "little upside and a lot of downside". He sees the stimulus-fueled recovery as a bear market correction, not a new bull market. The high correlation in major markets leads him to think we are trading on fear. He correctly called the 10 - 15 percent correction we saw in the markets this summer. Now, he sees us at the upper end of a range - time to be cautious.
Personally, I see the markets lining up for a bit of a possible short-term year-end rally. Other than that, I could not agree more.
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