For the iShares TSX60 ETF (XIU), I am showing the gains made by using the 200-day moving average as the buy/sell decision point. It has been a little over a year, and already the benefits can be seen over a buy and hold approach. Of course, those gains would be slightly less with commissions factored in.
No new trades in my portfolio (Model in the chart above) since Feb. 08. I am being too cautious, but want to avoid any sudden drop the European situation might cause. Also, the qualitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve will start to wear off at some point.
Seasonally, we are entering the time of year when the TSX is running on all cylinders as the Material, Financial, and Energy sectors tend to do well.
Two month return for TSX @ February 29, 2012 = 5.76 percent
Two month return for Basic Timing Model using XIU = 5.92 percent
Two month return for Advanced Timing Model (my returns) = -1.13 percent
Money for charity = $0.00
How about you? Are you cautious in this market, or are you looking forward to good times ahead?
When do you plan to enter into the market again?
ReplyDelete@Anonymous
DeleteMyself, the sooner the better! Any continued break below the 100-day moving average would start to get my attention, as far as any inverse ETF's are concerned. If not, then any pull-back could provide an opportunity to start to go long, again. After all, this is normally a strong period, especially for the TSX, as far as seasonality is concerned. I see limited opportunity for advancement from here, currently, but a pull-back would create additional upside potential.
Don't know how much that helps. Currently, my time horizon is very short and since I am being cautious, I am waiting for a fairly strong signal, one way or the other.